NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9833647bfb04af1799fc7bf1f488bbe14bdff54193dbc0138d3aaad1b798b554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 5,233$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,564.85 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…834cbacked Over | 48c | 2,926$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.28 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Under | 1c | 2,436$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Over | 49c | 1,986$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.16 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Under | 49c | 1,884$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.54 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.85 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 1,120$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.24 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 49c | 670.4$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.91 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 77c | 655.36$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf793…6265backed Over | 52c | 374.73$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.87 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 262.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Under | 29c | 256.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 48c | 150.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 49c | 126.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 51c | 117.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 102.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 85.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 55c | 77.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 49c | 76.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…a659backed Under | 47c | 75.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 71.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 49c | 58.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 74c | 54.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…5b36backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…e52cbacked Under | 51c | 34.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Under | 51c | 28.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5this page
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Jake LaRavia: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 244.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 246.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 250.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 254.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 258.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.