NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6474a00034c5aa9974292b2aca24cc8ff1502eed164a90d3529fa47677e7e7e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Under | 48c | 2,039$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.48 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 1,681$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 58c | 1,231$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.83 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 1,164$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.15 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…6736backed Under | 47c | 945.38$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.33 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 931.34$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.08 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Under | 16c | 537.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 110 | 33.6%37 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 53c | 525.92$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.22 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Over | 55c | 443.41$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.64 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 47c | 318.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Under | 51c | 310.56$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.39 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -5.5wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 45c | 256.27$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Over | 52c | 221.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 177 | 40.1%71 W · 106 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 192.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 15c | 160.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 46c | 111.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 52c | 103.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 57c | 96.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…401cbacked Under | 51c | 78.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 56c | 70.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 56c | 69.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 54c | 67.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 54c | 67.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 54c | 67.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 54c | 67.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 54c | 67.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 54c | 67.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Over | 54c | 67.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 54c | 63.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 46c | 58.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 55c | 57.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 29c | 54.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 76c | 54.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f74…4adabacked Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…9230backed Under | 45c | 34.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 32.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…4ce4backed Over | 50c | 23.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed Over | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 54c | 21.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 51c | 21.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5this page
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Jake LaRavia: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 244.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 246.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 250.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 254.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 258.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.