TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Lakers, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,657
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,106

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,657 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Lakers8c4,807$378 inLost-$378.42,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lakers25c820.91$201 inLost-$201.333,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers12c672.66$80 inLost-$80.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4980…57febacked Lakers37c259.66$96 inLost-$96.0810245.1%46 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Mavericks67c220.55$148 inWon+$72.7890957.6%524 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x834f…266ebacked Lakers11c180.98$20 inLost-$19.771936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Mavericks67c146.3$98 inWon+$48.2828554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x191e…dd9ebacked Lakers35c138.25$48 inLost-$48.391526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lakers10c111.99$11 inLost-$11.21,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Mavericks68c100.96$69 inWon+$32.3127549.5%136 W · 139 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Lakers32c84.45$27 inLost-$27.023,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae7b…aec1backed Mavericks70c84.19$59 inWon+$25.263455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e8…8435backed Lakers13c78.67$10 inLost-$10.235550.9%28 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Lakers20c78.02$15 inLost-$15.251,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x323c…2fa4backed Lakers42c71.8$30 inLost-$30.078154.3%44 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers34c57.28$19 inLost-$19.474,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd3b…cea6backed Mavericks54c43.6$23 inWon+$20.177565.3%49 W · 26 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f18…2080backed Mavericks65c41.15$27 inWon+$14.424850%124 W · 124 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mavericks59c37.28$22 inWon+$15.332,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Mavericks67c36.57$25 inWon+$12.0725752.5%135 W · 122 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f9…c01dbacked Mavericks68c28.85$20 inWon+$9.231080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+50%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb700…5a62backed Mavericks68c24.96$17 inWon+$8.0817660.8%107 W · 69 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Mavericks68c24$16 inWon+$7.6871752%373 W · 344 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe777…c734backed Mavericks67c22.37$15 inWon+$7.386639.4%26 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Mavericks66c22.2$15 inWon+$7.5581349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Lakers46c22$10 inLost-$10.1252240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c36…e462backed Mavericks65c19.99$13 inWon+$711851.7%61 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks68c19.62$13 inWon+$6.283,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Mavericks77c19.2$15 inWon+$4.461,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Mavericks63c18.97$12 inWon+$7.0855751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f39…fc7fbacked Mavericks66c15.93$11 inWon+$5.421040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.