TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,888 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4488…e319backed Over52c1,997$1,039 inWon+$958.6269149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c677.31$325 inLost-$325.359,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under49c448.48$220 inLost-$219.751,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a2…a105backed Over51c306.71$156 inWon+$150.29977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+46.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Under49c306$150 inLost-$149.9447436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbaa…c8ffbacked Under54c291.72$158 inLost-$157.5321653.7%116 W · 100 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa15f…ad19backed Under49c257.29$126 inLost-$126.029854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f2…fdb4backed Under50c194$97 inLost-$9711558.3%67 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1629…8510backed Under53c181.81$97 inLost-$97.2110249%50 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over50c176.64$88 inWon+$88.324,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over46c176.17$81 inWon+$95.133,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under16c174.34$28 inLost-$27.898,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Under49c138.49$68 inLost-$67.865147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Under24c115.78$28 inLost-$27.7937848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Over51c100$51 inWon+$4926745.3%121 W · 146 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under48c97.71$47 inLost-$46.980653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over51c81.56$42 inWon+$39.671,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under49c81.14$40 inLost-$39.761,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under50c73.62$37 inLost-$36.5481349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcebd…2502backed Under49c33.63$16 inLost-$16.483545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce06…c99dbacked Over52c28.62$15 inWon+$13.747047.1%33 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over52c27.61$14 inWon+$13.251,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x792a…7364backed Under55c26.54$15 inLost-$14.621649.1%106 W · 110 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7492…6568backed Over50c24.06$12 inWon+$12.0331955.2%176 W · 143 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under49c22.27$11 inLost-$10.911,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb460…b5e1backed Under54c19.9$11 inLost-$10.691258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.