TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Lakers, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,412
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,412 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd48a…6e90backed Lakers47c10,007$4,703 inLost-$4,703.381,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6bd…3096backed Mavericks53c4,842$2,566 inWon+$2,275.657852.6%41 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Mavericks53c3,528$1,870 inWon+$1,658.0770246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Mavericks56c1,887$1,049 inWon+$838.117349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks69c1,804$1,238 inWon+$566.012,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers31c1,500$465 inLost-$4653,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers44c1,152$507 inLost-$506.856,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e7…cc0cbacked Mavericks53c995.33$528 inWon+$467.86352.4%33 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Lakers47c780.99$367 inLost-$367.0620051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b62…728abacked Mavericks53c755$400 inWon+$354.8511556.5%65 W · 50 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks53c514.56$274 inWon+$241.034,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Mavericks53c448.59$238 inWon+$210.8414441%59 W · 85 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lakers47c399.98$188 inLost-$187.991,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers30c398.58$118 inLost-$117.98,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Lakers45c355.84$160 inLost-$160.131,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Lakers44c355.84$157 inLost-$156.571,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Lakers45c234.58$106 inLost-$105.561,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Lakers46c201.98$92 inLost-$92.0149249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Lakers48c201.83$97 inLost-$96.8810745.8%49 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d95…2342backed Mavericks54c180.07$97 inWon+$82.837250%36 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Mavericks55c84.92$47 inWon+$38.2138453.4%205 W · 179 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Mavericks53c73.34$39 inWon+$34.4728949.1%142 W · 147 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90aa…5f6cbacked Lakers47c67.77$32 inLost-$31.8521849.5%108 W · 110 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Mavericks53c45.84$24 inWon+$21.5413750.4%69 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Lakers45c42.47$19 inLost-$18.961,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Mavericks54c42.07$23 inWon+$19.4330446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Lakers46c32.9$15 inLost-$15.1327251.1%139 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23e7…fca5backed Mavericks68c28.01$19 inWon+$8.846962.3%43 W · 26 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cfc…20b7backed Mavericks53c26.81$14 inWon+$12.63345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaed…5749backed Mavericks68c23.84$16 inWon+$7.637052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Mavericks69c14.72$10 inWon+$4.6189048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.