TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-18.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Heat, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$683,998
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$685,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $683,998 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Heat50c472,912$236,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236,360.6787451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Wizards50c159,999$80,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,999.566248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards50c143,424$71,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,461.151,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards50c102,890$51,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,998.539,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Heat49c43,383$21,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,257.9160351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards48c22,932$10,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,951.113,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Wizards50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,999.7732540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Wizards50c19,400$9,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,70014842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards51c15,742$8,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,735.434,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6bd…3096backed Wizards50c13,629$6,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,791.257852.6%41 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf166…9cf5backed Wizards50c11,729$5,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,826.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Wizards51c8,613$4,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,229.7548845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wizards50c7,995$3,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,997.412,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8de…a2b8backed Heat7c7,159$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.893933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Wizards50c6,839$3,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,410.5590650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Heat49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,94043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Wizards50c5,605$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,776.951,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Heat48c5,375$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,579.9872648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards50c5,270$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,631.853,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Wizards45c4,461$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,455.1326337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Heat49c4,280$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.2827455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Wizards45c4,255$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.914556.6%82 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Wizards50c4,058$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.181,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Wizards38c3,301$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.592,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Wizards43c3,268$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.091,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1a…e54ebacked Wizards34c3,143$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.836058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Heat49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Wizards51c2,912$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.781,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Wizards50c2,483$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.681,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Heat1c2,481$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0711033.6%37 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2913…d241backed Heat51c2,005$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.036550.8%33 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Heat50c1,988$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98684150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed8…4388backed Heat71c1,981$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.311442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Wizards51c1,941$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.198763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Heat68c1,731$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.4443269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Wizards52c1,645$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.2629849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Wizards50c1,428$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.882,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Wizards51c1,422$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.7595651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Wizards51c1,383$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.351,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Heat47c1,289$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.3793148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Wizards51c1,238$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.3819745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Heat50c970$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48562948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Wizards50c969.98$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.9971654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Wizards50c968.16$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.1365349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacb…03b7backed Heat50c964.74$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.0910457.7%60 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Wizards36c955.01$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.212,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Wizards50c921.13$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.5758953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Heat48c829.94$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.371,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards51c792.3$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.953,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Wizards50c769.54$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.4436852.2%192 W · 176 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354f…95f8backed Wizards53c733.43$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.718763.2%55 W · 32 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x141d…7ea0backed Heat50c682.8$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.49454.3%51 W · 43 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat49c637.21$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.321,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Wizards50c628.56$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.2816946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Wizards49c615.71$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.811,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Heat50c593.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5757650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Wizards52c592.81$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.1132450.3%163 W · 161 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef8f…fa57backed Heat50c582$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2911258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd6f…bad3backed Wizards15c573.45$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.816341.3%26 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Wizards51c535.81$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.8424247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Wizards49c505.61$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.8624650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c7…cad0backed Heat58c504.21$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-35.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Wizards50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Wizards51c487.24$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.751,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43bf…425abacked Heat50c483.43$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.531656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Wizards52c465.97$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.6742352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Heat50c440.44$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.8730453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94c4…2a41backed Heat51c428.43$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.4122953.3%122 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Heat58c407.45$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1359140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5545…9d86backed Wizards51c405.64$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.861145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Wizards51c395.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.7935546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Heat49c394$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19514452.1%75 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Wizards50c388$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19432450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Heat50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19411451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Wizards50c388$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19414039.3%55 W · 85 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Wizards50c388$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1949044.4%40 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6265…0d9fbacked Heat51c382.47$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.098155.6%45 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa76d…6a8ebacked Wizards51c347.13$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.023956.4%22 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Heat50c345.32$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.661,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Heat51c306.17$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6948751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Wizards22c300$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23489444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Wizards50c299.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.662,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Wizards49c286.24$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.0291846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Wizards50c278$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9491746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Wizards51c271.77$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.1790957.6%524 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Heat51c271.14$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7889853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb007…21f2backed Wizards58c253.87$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.671346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Heat49c243.45$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2922552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Wizards52c241.01$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6914455.6%80 W · 64 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Wizards50c236.2$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.164844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8584…6b7dbacked Heat50c219.11$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.29958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Heat49c211$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.391,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Wizards37c209.66$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5627138.7%105 W · 166 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Heat47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8216948.5%82 W · 87 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x190f…01f3backed Heat50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009150.5%46 W · 45 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Wizards50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10019435.1%68 W · 126 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea3…a8aebacked Heat49c195.74$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.916858.8%40 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Wizards51c194.12$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1219359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe226…95a5backed Heat50c194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979853.1%52 W · 46 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.