NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 249.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x112699009dca7d4185295db690ffbd603c45ca73a1c9fec4109e137030cc4f5d

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,033 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under	49c	13,284$6,561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,561.02	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Over	51c	7,680$3,917 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,763.1	199	54.8%109 W · 90 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72a7…4c25backed Over	47c	4,000$1,880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,120	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over	48c	2,015$967 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,047.87	931	48.4%451 W · 480 L	+34.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	56c	1,750$987 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$987.24	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa9c…0b28backed Under	53c	1,458$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.58	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe49d…ff91backed Under	56c	1,431$801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$801.33	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	47c	1,326$618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$707.3	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec7d…9b6ebacked Under	53c	1,263$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9997…0068backed Under	53c	1,166$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.06	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	50c	854.57$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$427.29	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over	52c	823.5$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.5	956	51.5%492 W · 464 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over	50c	565.13$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.57	906	50.2%455 W · 451 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over	50c	557.87$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.94	1,084	50%542 W · 542 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over	50c	557.87$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.94	716	54.1%387 W · 329 L	+21.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over	50c	557.87$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.94	589	53.7%316 W · 273 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Over	50c	557.87$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.94	298	49.3%147 W · 151 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	44c	410.71$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over	64c	323.52$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.47	658	72.8%479 W · 179 L	+46.1wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over	44c	273.34$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.85	1,277	47.2%603 W · 674 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	44c	216.26$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.11	1,399	46.4%649 W · 750 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Under	36c	192.32$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.24	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over	45c	185.87$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.23	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Under	53c	183.36$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.18	289	49.1%142 W · 147 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over	47c	150$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.5	786	48.7%383 W · 403 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	49c	135.38$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.78	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	46c	132.71$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.1	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x96ac…61e8backed Under	57c	130.54$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.41	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed Under	54c	129.35$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.85	192	45.3%87 W · 105 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over	43c	125.36$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.35	935	43.6%408 W · 527 L	-32.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d43…86e7backed Over	43c	122.14$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.62	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	46c	118.46$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.11	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over	46c	115.71$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.48	806	53.6%432 W · 374 L	+16.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Over	45c	113.14$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.23	553	47.9%265 W · 288 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under	63c	106.45$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.77	98	54.1%53 W · 45 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.43	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Over	50c	97$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.5	653	49.9%326 W · 327 L	+20.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	37c	93.33$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.8	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Under	55c	88.45$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.65	185	52.4%97 W · 88 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f2…fdb4backed Under	55c	88.45$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.65	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over	44c	67.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.84	564	47.9%270 W · 294 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under	54c	64.87$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.25	516	47.5%245 W · 271 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Over	43c	58.1$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.12	1,393	48.3%673 W · 720 L	+19.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x015d…7bc7backed Under	49c	58.05$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.44	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under	54c	57.61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	611	51.4%314 W · 297 L	+17.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under	54c	57.61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	350	52.6%184 W · 166 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Under	54c	57.61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	146	40.4%59 W · 87 L	-9.5wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under	54c	57.61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	592	50.2%297 W · 295 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Over	44c	52.01$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.13	173	50.3%87 W · 86 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b1…4814backed Over	41c	51.63$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.23	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.0wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under	54c	48.81$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.19	349	53%185 W · 164 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	42c	42.89$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.72	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61ca…a1b4backed Over	51c	39$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.11	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38bb…2fcfbacked Under	55c	35.38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4de2…60acbacked Over	50c	34.92$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.46	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2838…01c1backed Over	50c	34.92$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.46	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	52c	34.22$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.43	890	48.8%434 W · 456 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Under	58c	33.61$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	373	44.2%165 W · 208 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2bc…a4c6backed Under	61c	32.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over	43c	32.05$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.43	377	53.8%203 W · 174 L	+12.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1970…e980backed Under	36c	30.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	-7.3wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	41c	29.12$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.22	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	43c	28.53$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.26	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Under	54c	26.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+23%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Under	49c	25.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.27	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under	54c	24.52$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Over	48c	23.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.57	110	33.6%37 W · 73 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…b4f6backed Under	57c	23.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	58cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Over	47c	21.6$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	462	55.6%257 W · 205 L	+22.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0065…b38dbacked Under	56c	20.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade8…652abacked Under	57c	19.34$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 249.5this page
1H Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 13.5No won
Alexandre Sarr: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5No won
Bilal Coulibaly: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 12.5No won
Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Spread: Heat (-14.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-16.5)Wizards won
Spread: Heat (-17.5)Wizards won
Spread: Heat (-18.5)Wizards won
Spread: Heat (-19.5)Wizards won
Tre Johnson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Tre Johnson: Points O/U 12.5No won
Tre Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Will Riley: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Wizards vs. HeatHeat won
Wizards vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
Wizards vs. Heat: 1H O/U 127.5Over won
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Over won
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 246.5Over won
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 248.5Over won
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 250.5Over won
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 265.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 249.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event