TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,324 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes49c2,206$1,081 inWon+$1,124.031,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No51c1,750$898 inLost-$897.579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Yes41c775.83$316 inWon+$459.951,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes38c693.24$263 inWon+$429.8176054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No62c600$372 inLost-$37265762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No49c311.75$153 inLost-$152.765,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Yes51c194.12$99 inWon+$95.1237755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked No48c185$90 inLost-$89.6511538.3%44 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6bb…6b39backed No48c185$90 inLost-$89.658040%32 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98d…c479backed No48c185$90 inLost-$89.657441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed No49c100$49 inLost-$4917748%85 W · 92 L+16.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No62c100$62 inLost-$6295260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked No49c98$48 inLost-$48.0212637.3%47 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No60c71.95$43 inLost-$43.1792058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed No49c64$31 inLost-$31.3613837.7%52 W · 86 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed No60c60$36 inLost-$3630256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed No49c50$25 inLost-$24.514449.3%71 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No61c36.26$22 inLost-$22.1289853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed No49c32$16 inLost-$15.6816640.4%67 W · 99 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed No49c32$16 inLost-$15.6821242%89 W · 123 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed No49c32$16 inLost-$15.6823441.5%97 W · 137 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No64c29.74$19 inLost-$19.043751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No49c25$12 inLost-$12.252,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Yes51c24.95$13 inWon+$12.2338751.2%198 W · 189 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.