TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Tre Johnson: Points O/U 12.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,008 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No65c2,029$1,312 inWon+$716.8465762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14b9…b69fbacked Yes29c858.36$249 inLost-$248.921233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Yes40c570.93$229 inLost-$229.436954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x866b…1601backed Yes31c348.07$107 inLost-$106.8650%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No69c308.78$213 inWon+$95.721,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2ae…817ebacked Yes38c246.91$94 inLost-$94.3750%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ae…68a6backed Yes40c178.34$71 inLost-$71.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No61c78.28$48 inWon+$30.5395260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0654…f5a9backed Yes40c77.12$31 inLost-$30.859451.1%48 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edd…a867backed Yes33c66.43$22 inLost-$22.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes31c62.5$19 inLost-$19.3876054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed No70c59$41 inWon+$17.730256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2783backed Yes30c51.35$15 inLost-$15.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No70c41$29 inWon+$12.34,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No70c33.8$24 inWon+$10.1492058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Yes40c28.92$12 inLost-$11.5716951.5%87 W · 82 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes69c25$17 inLost-$17.2532866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed No69c25$17 inWon+$7.7510753.3%57 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed No61c20.61$13 inWon+$7.997259.7%43 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No71c18.3$13 inWon+$5.3119555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ac3…8fb0backed No79c16.07$13 inWon+$3.372065%13 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5069…9094backed No78c13$10 inWon+$2.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.