TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-16.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Heat, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,115 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Wizards42c57,601$24,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,408.4966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Heat58c56,125$32,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,552.4736549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Heat56c17,179$9,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,620.1872648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards44c9,715$4,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,452.219,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Heat58c4,816$2,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,783.410252%53 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Wizards55c4,771$2,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,140.071,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Wizards11c4,629$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,107.392,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards43c2,763$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.394,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards43c2,420$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.284,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Wizards44c2,379$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.221,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Heat57c2,136$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.7521957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Wizards44c1,966$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.8771654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Wizards46c1,809$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.291,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d9…41c7backed Heat57c1,709$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.23745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Heat75c1,336$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.3243269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Wizards44c1,275$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.271,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Wizards43c1,056$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.718444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Wizards44c826.57$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.5817850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Heat58c817.2$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.9857444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Wizards43c781$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.1720051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Wizards46c762.71$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.9681349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Wizards42c751.38$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.291,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x031a…50b7backed Heat57c693.96$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.559357%53 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Wizards42c581.92$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5256843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34f9…ebf6backed Heat57c512.74$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.267460.8%45 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Heat51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25522846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards44c494.8$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.096,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Wizards44c469.67$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.0237355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Wizards49c451.57$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.393148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Wizards43c449.21$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.0532450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Wizards43c449.21$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.0536852.2%192 W · 176 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Wizards44c439.61$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.3451647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Wizards47c426$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7852951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Wizards43c393.14$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.1435546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Wizards48c392.92$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.712,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0999…016ebacked Heat58c368.01$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2813850%69 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a89…76ecbacked Heat56c347.83$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.721464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x431c…12ecbacked Heat57c341.82$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.843046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Heat58c336.13$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9676250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Heat56c322.83$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8990650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Heat56c322.83$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8958953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8193…8c82backed Heat57c319.57$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.163647.2%17 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Heat58c270.73$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.983948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Heat56c268.38$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9556447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Heat56c267.79$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9659250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed Wizards43c258.77$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.527645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Wizards43c250.73$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8293543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Wizards43c245.2$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.811,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat52c235.1$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.281,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Heat52c234.95$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3716948.5%82 W · 87 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards43c228.35$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.863,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Wizards43c228$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.962,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Wizards43c222.12$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.5165349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Wizards47c220$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.635849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards44c199.71$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.841,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Wizards47c194.54$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.725,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9e…f670backed Heat54c194.48$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0211345.1%51 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Heat55c185.93$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8634953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73d…cbf8backed Heat56c182.55$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.234557.8%26 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Heat56c173.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3635052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Heat56c173.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3614640.4%59 W · 87 L-9.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5cee…dfadbacked Heat56c173.29$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3713655.9%76 W · 60 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1150…abe0backed Heat57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.423560%21 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Wizards46c163.04$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.041,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Heat55c140.88$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8581845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Wizards44c128.7$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.291,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Heat58c118.6$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2272250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Heat54c118.29$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8815446.8%72 W · 82 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2685…bb3abacked Heat56c114.75$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.264264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Wizards22c105.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.789048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Wizards45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.312,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Wizards43c98.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.151,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Heat57c97.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5389853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Wizards43c88.9$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6880653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Heat55c88.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6518552.4%97 W · 88 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x231f…254bbacked Heat56c86.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.689848%47 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54df…51fabacked Heat58c84.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7414963.1%94 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49dd…a40bbacked Heat58c84.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7414555.2%80 W · 65 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Wizards47c81.05$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.962,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b6…f8e2backed Heat57c79.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.35742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x015d…7bc7backed Wizards47c63.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.756553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Heat57c60.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5164844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d75…a24abacked Heat54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.46368.3%43 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe506…1bccbacked Heat57c51.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.231631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-26.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d1a…39a6backed Heat57c51.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.23944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Wizards43c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.553339.6%211 W · 322 L-39.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Wizards43c48.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.431,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9449…34e7backed Heat56c47.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.72875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf237…4989backed Wizards44c45.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.457450%37 W · 37 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat52c45.21$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5174748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0198…37e6backed Heat54c45.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.315653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Heat57c43.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9916842.3%71 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Heat56c43.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3457051.9%296 W · 274 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe847…b7e2backed Heat57c42.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.365856.9%33 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76d…6a8ebacked Heat57c42.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.463956.4%22 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Wizards43c35.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2920240.1%81 W · 121 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2de8…2092backed Heat56c34.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.482050%10 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Heat56c34.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.211232.1%36 W · 76 L-17.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Heat57c30.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5490560.8%550 W · 355 L-2.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3f7…f5dcbacked Wizards46c30.13$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.36580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+61.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.