NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 246.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb12f7426068d24e8140115bab8415f5006ec13276080617f7b60a5c24cc9d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 53c | 25,000$13,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,766.29 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…3b26backed Under | 51c | 11,333$5,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,779.79 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 4,879$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439.6 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 2,861$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.54 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 47c | 2,689$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.22 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 47c | 1,790$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.48 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Under | 52c | 1,703$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.81 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 47c | 1,516$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.39 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 49c | 989.16$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.47 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 50c | 753.26$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.58 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 50c | 726.28$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.26 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 47c | 428.33$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.31 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 47c | 412$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.64 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 47c | 412$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.64 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 364.39$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.03 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…306abacked Over | 53c | 302.54$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.19 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…9d86backed Under | 47c | 263.07$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Over | 54c | 253.46$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.34 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Over | 50c | 242.72$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.72 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…306fbacked Over | 50c | 194.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…0058backed Over | 53c | 137.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 132.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 124.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Over | 49c | 110.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 48c | 107.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 106.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 47c | 100.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 148 | 45.3%67 W · 81 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 49c | 75.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 53c | 75.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 65c | 75.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -17.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 71.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 48c | 70.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 54c | 69.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b1…4814backed Under | 50c | 62.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 55.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 51.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 50c | 49.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 319 | 53%169 W · 150 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 39.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Over | 57c | 31.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 53c | 30.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d5d1backed Over | 53c | 30.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…af90backed Over | 54c | 30.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5955backed Under | 47c | 28.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…e029backed Under | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 70c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…064abacked Over | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 246.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Alexandre Sarr: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-14.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Heat (-17.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Heat (-18.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Heat (-19.5)Wizards won
- Tre Johnson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Tre Johnson: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Tre Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Will Riley: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Wizards vs. HeatHeat won
- Wizards vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Wizards vs. Heat: 1H O/U 127.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 248.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 249.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 250.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 265.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.