TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-17.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Heat, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$335,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$346,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,928 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Heat52c72,674$37,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,789.6772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Heat52c60,000$31,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,199.960351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Wizards48c39,788$19,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,690.162,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Wizards10c36,998$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,297.941,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Wizards37c27,522$10,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,263.92,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards48c20,370$9,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,635.079,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.9866250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat53c9,986$5,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,292.761,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Wizards50c9,385$4,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,692.551,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Heat53c8,083$4,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,283.7587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Heat52c5,941$3,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.1827455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Wizards50c5,770$2,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,858.9116959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wizards48c5,279$2,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,756.42,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Wizards48c5,048$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,643.651,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Wizards47c4,425$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,345.3414842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Heat52c4,302$2,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,237.2637355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Wizards31c3,924$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.1911033.6%37 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Wizards48c3,135$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.971,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Wizards48c3,002$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.923,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Wizards48c2,462$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.3490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Heat51c2,457$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.2712450.8%63 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Wizards47c2,187$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.1424151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Heat52c2,137$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.054951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Wizards47c2,130$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.8814355.9%80 W · 63 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Wizards16c2,091$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.4952230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Wizards47c2,007$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.1529849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Wizards51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Wizards48c1,836$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.7213946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards47c1,833$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.614,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Wizards47c1,544$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.621,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf963…aa06backed Heat51c1,342$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Heat65c1,205$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.4343269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat50c1,185$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.322,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Heat54c1,037$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.7522140.7%90 W · 131 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Heat49c1,000$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49411945.4%54 W · 65 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Wizards50c959.68$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.662,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Heat53c930.43$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.9971654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5545…9d86backed Wizards48c890.7$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.831145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Wizards48c835$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.27048.6%34 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards48c810.57$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.51,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat50c805.62$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.394,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Heat48c740.03$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.2149244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb6…e3bbbacked Heat53c733.43$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.726266.1%41 W · 21 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Heat53c729.86$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.7932952.9%174 W · 155 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Heat50c621.77$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.8916946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Heat53c599.99$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.9949345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Wizards49c590.91$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.4481349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Wizards49c585.76$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.8962744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Heat53c580.15$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.2530453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Heat53c579.53$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.1589853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Heat52c513.62$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.0822953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Heat52c489.09$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3359250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Wizards54c480.46$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.193148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Heat53c470.45$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4958953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Heat52c466.92$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.856447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Heat52c433.56$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0234953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Heat56c432.99$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.7448751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Wizards48c428.61$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.281,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards47c424.11$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.763,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Wizards48c419.2$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.5665349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed Wizards48c415.64$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1227645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Wizards47c412$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.3632450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Wizards46c409.01$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.65,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Wizards47c394.98$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.3436852.2%192 W · 176 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Wizards46c386.91$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.9324650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Wizards48c380$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.441,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Wizards47c376.5$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.541,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Heat52c374.6$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.577751.9%40 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6265…0d9fbacked Heat53c365.07$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.398155.6%45 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Wizards37c362.18$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.9289048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Heat53c326.12$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4957650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc11…c87bbacked Heat54c291.72$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.531560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Heat52c287.45$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4722552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards48c287.36$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.033,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards49c269.51$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.454,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…debbbacked Heat52c265.83$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0220443.6%89 W · 115 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards48c265.45$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.036,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Wizards47c248.58$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7593543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Heat51c237.89$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3316948.5%82 W · 87 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aae…16e6backed Heat51c235.91$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3212458.9%73 W · 51 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Wizards47c224.33$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.291,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda29…7907backed Heat58c220.64$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4212653.2%67 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ff…8d60backed Wizards45c211.57$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.632642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Heat52c210.88$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2615252.6%80 W · 72 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Wizards47c209$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.772,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Wizards48c201.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9512845.3%58 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Wizards46c199.98$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9968645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Wizards46c199.97$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9819435.1%68 W · 126 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Heat49c197.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.941,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Wizards48c197.78$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8335546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4efc…6391backed Heat54c194.48$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.025853.4%31 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f6c…df05backed Wizards50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977256.9%41 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Wizards48c193.76$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7691846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Heat52c188.66$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6719550.8%99 W · 96 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1feb…df66backed Heat79c187.47$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.11957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Heat52c186.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1214640.4%59 W · 87 L-9.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Heat52c186.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1224849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c2b…c1a3backed Heat52c186.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.121361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Wizards47c186.45$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.351,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Heat53c183.36$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1835052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.