TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 245.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,713 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44f…d49fbacked Under48c15,351$7,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,368.5848352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over52c13,922$7,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,738.889,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under50c9,428$4,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7141,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.9887750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf29…834cbacked Over48c1,964$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.0912646%58 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Under52c1,833$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.9893148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d0d…7435backed Over54c1,327$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.418339.8%33 W · 50 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Over51c1,113$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.8529849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c1,102$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.461,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc23c…33f1backed Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48571654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Over51c827.98$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.7120051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under51c687$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.3731354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over51c628.64$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.690650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under7c580.58$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6420837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Under50c577.32$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0821950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2354,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over50c387.6$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.7219550.8%99 W · 96 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over50c368.16$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.72,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under36c305.75$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.162,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed Over63c303.63$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.998453.6%45 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over51c302.7$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9893543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Under37c299.63$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.861,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Over51c282.93$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4132450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over51c265.47$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.371,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under48c211.72$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6367248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over53c206.33$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.341,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5c…7fc6backed Under49c197.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.94850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Under49c196.41$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.964047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bca…0d11backed Over50c194.19$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.110252.9%54 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9761151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Over50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9735052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9751647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Under47c187.77$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0491746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over50c169.11$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.871,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e8…8435backed Over54c163.49$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.215550.9%28 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over52c156.32$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0564844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under47c153.72$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.851,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over51c150.15$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.571,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cfa…9743backed Over52c145.68$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.934045%18 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Over54c143.16$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8536852.2%192 W · 176 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over54c143.16$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8558953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over54c143.16$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8556447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15f…ad19backed Over52c129.74$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.749854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Over54c119.44$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9434953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Under48c115.82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3414845.3%67 W · 81 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Over55c112.05$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4218459.2%109 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under46c111.93$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.821,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Over54c105$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.316053.8%86 W · 74 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over50c99.35$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.671,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Over50c98.94$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4747738.2%182 W · 295 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x891f…f851backed Over50c97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.53732.4%12 W · 25 L-6.5wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-35.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Over50c91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.565349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under50c85.2$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.655347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a1…9db5backed Over50c80.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.38per pick48cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over58c71.14$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2311232.1%36 W · 76 L-17.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Over54c57.26$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3417350.3%87 W · 86 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over48c57.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.663,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Under35c54.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1255751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Over50c53.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7918444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Over51c52.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.731953%169 W · 150 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under47c51.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.32,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08fb…8b8bbacked Under51c48.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.756746.3%31 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over50c45.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7613052.3%68 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf885…d719backed Under48c44.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.17616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under44c41.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.613,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12dc…1100backed Under52c41.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.372842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Under45c37.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8423840.8%97 W · 141 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0c8…90c3backed Under52c37.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.421369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85b1…4814backed Under48c36.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.192035%7 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x466b…bbb3backed Under52c35.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under50c33.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9860945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f5a9backed Over60c32.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.014858.3%28 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.137753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2755…6eacbacked Under52c29.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Over56c26.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5616369.9%114 W · 49 L+18.6wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+19.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under50c23.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9280653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over52c23.66$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.391,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53fe…0485backed Under49c21.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.