Ukraine · resolved market
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1520ab624df1c766771be60573788eb01dc365d682445e1a9c2d093de26291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 2,731$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…4a77backed Yes | 2c | 2,199$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e8…1028backed Yes | 58c | 1,099$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 69c | 923.32$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 2c | 846.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 14c | 550.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 22c | 549$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 11c | 341.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.91 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…ab7dbacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 33c | 263.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 19c | 239.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 200.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…4decbacked Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…8f4bbacked No | 69c | 139$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 116.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 115.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed No | 65c | 111.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…5e39backed Yes | 17c | 97.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 31c | 97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 89.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…a0e2backed No | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 34c | 74.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…df98backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…0486backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8983…21bbbacked Yes | 35c | 50.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…4322backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…261dbacked Yes | 32c | 44.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7e…44bdbacked Yes | 33c | 42.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dff…a272backed No | 68c | 40.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 34c | 39.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…42b1backed No | 68c | 31.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 75c | 30.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d2…d94cbacked No | 70c | 18.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 25%?this page
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 30%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.