Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27fc90fa26f7e64d842606fb84578a72052d8c52edb6309f1108609965b48255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,786 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 60c | 654.1$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.18 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 79c | 556.61$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 24c | 433.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 47c | 345.04$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.55 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 51c | 297.31$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 277.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 39c | 272.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 19c | 265.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 31c | 221.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.82 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 32c | 211$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 45c | 206$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 74c | 202.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked Yes | 41c | 195.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 62c | 148.59$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 131.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 118.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 27c | 101.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 33c | 100.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed No | 56c | 97.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…295ebacked Yes | 44c | 90.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 90.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 35c | 83.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…792dbacked Yes | 64c | 78.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 76c | 73.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 67.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 28c | 67.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 39c | 64.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 71c | 63.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 50c | 60.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 20c | 53.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 52.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 41c | 50.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 45.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 45c | 43.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 37c | 43.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 74c | 43.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 70c | 42.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…bfe9backed Yes | 40c | 40.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…bbbfbacked Yes | 63c | 39.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 63c | 39.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 65c | 38.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 38.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 35.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 57c | 34.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…0822backed Yes | 60c | 33.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…dcc3backed No | 52c | 32.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 60c | 31.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 41c | 30.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 50c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed No | 65c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…b551backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked No | 55c | 22.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 60c | 21.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 72c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 79c | 20.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 61c | 16.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8134…9b2dbacked No | 80c | 15.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 73c | 15.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 73c | 14.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.