MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbec275880e80f4997508c5c7d66767ed1e24f4da874c6ec57b909f8f5042a37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 2,508$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.92 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 1,715$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 1,206$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.42 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 61c | 1,100$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 1,100$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 52c | 980$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.4 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 57c | 331.97$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…4ce4backed Under | 47c | 264.43$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Over | 57c | 261.37$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3a…7fdcbacked Over | 18c | 201.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 62c | 186.15$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 62c | 161.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 46c | 139$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 45c | 130.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Over | 43c | 130.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 113.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 107.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Over | 42c | 102.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 55c | 90.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 63c | 84.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 63c | 84.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 82.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 75.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 42c | 58.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…750cbacked Under | 39c | 55.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 49.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 49c | 48.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Over | 37c | 45.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 47c | 45.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 46c | 38.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 43c | 36.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 44c | 25.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Under | 57c | 23.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Under | 78c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.