MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aa6cd70a4160abd931d6ca56e250ff646e6c300a4d7d8977689133a2d4994d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 2c | 1,780$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 1,560$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 1,108$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.68 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 999.97$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 529.08$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 494.6$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.57 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 335.48$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.32 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 264.63$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.06 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 217.62$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 217.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 203.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 183$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 151.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 127.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Atlanta Braves | 59c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7c49backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 44.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…f2b7backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.