TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes20c8,747$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.0327138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes20c5,177$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.9438748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes19c4,021$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.285440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed No80c3,963$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.152290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick70cpaid+29.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes21c3,500$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.9911762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes23c3,050$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.57111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No79c3,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6306459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes21c2,913$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.7569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked No80c2,795$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.05988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Yes17c2,781$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038e…d37bbacked Yes3c2,306$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes20c1,900$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.7519458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked No79c1,672$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.057057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Yes2c1,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Yes21c952.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2af2…ec6fbacked Yes2c814.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked No79c800$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1688764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fcc…e083backed Yes20c752$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.42835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked No80c750$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501492.9%13 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick68cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes2c729.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5644655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes24c702$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7915134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20c7…50c9backed Yes20c666.65$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.33425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked No80c649.3$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.861275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f7c…e75cbacked Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Yes20c570.41$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.953339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+84.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3b…6598backed Yes22c519.98$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.21315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes20c495$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9915540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca66…2305backed Yes21c465.1$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.67520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No79c450$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.515454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed No79c450$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.58864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No79c449.96$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4922854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8989…54a8backed Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed No79c360$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.614355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed No79c350$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.513957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed Yes22c330.33$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.676126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes23c304$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.927032.9%23 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked No79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6311860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc587…1630backed No80c287.75$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.553868.4%26 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed No79c280$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.812757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes23c277.41$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5211644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed No78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412378.3%18 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8034…2463backed No78c255.64$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.243574.3%26 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes18c220.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Yes23c220.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6437344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f77…724bbacked Yes21c214.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e52…2320backed Yes21c210$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.15364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3aa…7a89backed Yes11c206.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4213256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6e2…c751backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405770.2%40 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed No79c190$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.99659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed No79c180$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.812356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed No79c170$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.711458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked No79c170$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.76556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked No79c170$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.711259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked No79c170$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.712458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed No79c170$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.76460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed No79c170$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.712358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed No79c169.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.711563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes16c169.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.516750.9%85 W · 82 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No77c165$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.153,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a0…5804backed Yes21c161.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342548%12 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed No79c159.98$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.610360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf828…fca3backed Yes23c144.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1390%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Yes23c130.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010051%51 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6310…0d90backed No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.212045%9 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed No78c128$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.162185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick70cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed No79c127.93$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8713859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f11…ce9fbacked Yes22c127.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.95540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef65…f32fbacked No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+39.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes16c124.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9113851.4%71 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked No79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked No79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.212657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked No79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.26259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked No79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.213254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed No79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.29159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked No79c119.98$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.26162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No76c111$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.646144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes23c104$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9234342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff9…46bbbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes23c97.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.342924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1523…2e5fbacked Yes24c88.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No78c83$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6333945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…ae80backed Yes21c81.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9236…da58backed Yes23c80.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.421136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed No79c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.711661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Yes23c65.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes23c65.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9710040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x509a…3bd9backed No80c65$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Yes19c60.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.525352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.65558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.65459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.66464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.65757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.