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Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,715 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes28c19,614$5,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,124.9327138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No72c10,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes28c5,849$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,211.071957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes25c4,436$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,343.369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No63c3,987$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,510.4133737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked No72c3,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1607057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No72c3,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1606459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6880…5efdbacked Yes62c2,881$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…456cbacked Yes27c2,199$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed No10c1,707$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.692619.2%5 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes25c1,454$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.2838748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes21c1,000$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes25c999$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.257032.9%23 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471c…9e94backed Yes25c840.81$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.88887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick56cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked No72c799.99$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5768764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ef2…50e0backed No69c774.23$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.02366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes26c755.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.113237.5%12 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes27c642$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.1433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fcc…e083backed Yes19c526.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.322835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No72c450$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32422854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No72c450$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32415454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed No72c450$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3248864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes25c438$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.514447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No72c400$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28824258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed No72c400$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28812162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No74c387.84$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2872250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No8c369.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0113139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed No72c360$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.214355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed No72c350$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25213957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8d3…acf8backed Yes32c326.88$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2168461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21615453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked No72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21611860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed No72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21612858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed No72c280$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.612757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0954…cd35backed Yes38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No72c250$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18025659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes27c250$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3515134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked No72c200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No72c200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14413256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes25c190$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.511644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed No72c190$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.89659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes26c189$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed No72c180$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.612356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Yes27c172.48$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9137344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Yes15c171.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.3411931.1%37 W · 82 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed No72c170$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.411458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked No72c170$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.46556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed No72c170$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.413859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked No72c170$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.411259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked No72c170$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.412458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed No72c170$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.46460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed No72c170$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.412358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed No72c170$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.411563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed No72c160$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.210360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed Yes38c157.89$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.89742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes26c153.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.851758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5212…29c7backed No65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cd…2e45backed Yes43c151.16$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No72c150$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1088261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ff9…46bbbacked Yes22c150$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed No72c150$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1086959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2dfa…63d5backed Yes27c147.9$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Yes16c140$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.27338.4%28 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes28c125$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked No72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.46460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed No72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.412259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked No72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.46162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked No72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.412657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked No72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.46259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked No72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.413254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed No72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.49159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2316…b824backed Yes27c112$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfb…9f00backed No75c106.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802281.8%18 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick73cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No79c106$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeee4…1cefbacked Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+180.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked No75c94.11$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.511762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a2f…c5d0backed No75c93.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702050%10 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9236…da58backed Yes25c91.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc871…2f76backed Yes44c90.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.12862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbd…6575backed Yes28c89.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.29560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid+22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1227…4c44backed Yes34c83.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked No72c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.65459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605232.7%17 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked No72c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.67057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaba1…ac85backed Yes61c73.77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed No72c69.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.411661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes20c65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.816750.9%85 W · 82 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4161…c578backed No73c61.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb90…8dd8backed No34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-76.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.211360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.26464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.211759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.