Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d2deaf206f54c369090539f9fee7100dc878c29925a3f7a48d7953a80a3114a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,494 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 4,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,869$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.4 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked No | 1c | 1,716$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 16c | 1,558$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.03 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…307dbacked No | 1c | 1,220$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 1,215$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 2c | 970.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 4c | 726.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 8c | 610.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 2c | 546.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed No | 2c | 524.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…ad64backed No | 2c | 500.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 448.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 4c | 391.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 5c | 368.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 76c | 345.33$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 8c | 344.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.23 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 334.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 31c | 328.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…f6a4backed No | 9c | 272.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 10c | 210.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 5c | 210.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 207.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.66 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…339abacked No | 51c | 200.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 66c | 181.64$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked No | 10c | 171.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 168.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.02 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 35c | 168.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 165$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 160.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 118$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…c285backed No | 9c | 114.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 113.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 51c | 98.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 72.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 21c | 70.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 20c | 70.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 34c | 61.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 33c | 59.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 55c | 44.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 28c | 43.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 51c | 38.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 30.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 29.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.