Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcee4196548eff43b2444756a51d38ab94f369d52223105c1a60cd09b652ce708
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,287 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 3c | 1,923$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 439.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…fc76backed Yes | 26c | 381.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 19c | 339.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 21c | 300.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 205.42$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 182.51$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 167.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 157.84$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 8c | 149.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 135.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 133.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…b52abacked Yes | 14c | 132.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 30c | 119.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 72c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Yes | 18c | 109.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes | 11c | 108.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…c30dbacked Yes | 19c | 103.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 30c | 100.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…1b17backed Yes | 32c | 100.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 98.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 26c | 95.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 21c | 93.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 89.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 21c | 79.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 28c | 70.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 67.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 24c | 52.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 49.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 41.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5200backed Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 75c | 31.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 80c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.