Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38b1855a3fae24c4a9b7d46327805b7eab967433044030719e8751ff4d3c5ba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,287 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 0c | 12,566$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 519.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 402.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 337.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…fc76backed Yes | 49c | 306.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 247.7$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 226.44$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 33c | 225.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…b962backed Yes | 47c | 210.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 210.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 43c | 199.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…eac1backed Yes | 52c | 191.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 65c | 178.92$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 175.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 48c | 165.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…6c94backed No | 58c | 157.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 35c | 120.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 26c | 116.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 108.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 103.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 34c | 91.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 90.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 90.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 64c | 78.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 26c | 73.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 29c | 69.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 69.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 32c | 65.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 63.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 32c | 63.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 61.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 35c | 59.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27a…f59fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 46.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 45c | 44.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 34c | 43.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 41.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 46c | 41.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 62c | 40.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 66c | 38.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 70c | 37.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 54c | 36.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 46c | 34.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 68c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc5…c146backed Yes | 36c | 28.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 45c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 47c | 27.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…ec02backed Yes | 38c | 26.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 55c | 22.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338d…8549backed Yes | 50c | 20.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…b52ebacked No | 55c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.