Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0effe0242332f44ebfe694aa62e7f11a2c9d8c8555065aa3f70c52d97cb02b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,473 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Yes | 0c | 19,973$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 1c | 17,522$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.77 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 854.02$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 790.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 49c | 770.65$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.63 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 3c | 665.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…fc76backed Yes | 65c | 616.56$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 23c | 378.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.23 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 248.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 19c | 215.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 201.79$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 171.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 169.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 6c | 165.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 165$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 72c | 152.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 150.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 147.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.16 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 68c | 142.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked No | 72c | 139.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 74c | 134.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 134.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 60c | 118$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 114.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 31c | 100.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed No | 80c | 100.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 100.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 24c | 90.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 90.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 68c | 73.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 44c | 72.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 71.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 66.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 26c | 62.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 21c | 61.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 32c | 61.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 56.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked No | 73c | 55.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…adddbacked Yes | 67c | 53.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 46c | 44.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 44.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 29c | 43.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 27c | 41.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 49c | 41.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 32c | 35.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 44c | 35.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 29c | 34.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 32.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 64c | 28.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked No | 77c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 72c | 21.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 72c | 21.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.