AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $640b and $650b on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b12132591d5540a40f514428c76f785e1c01078a2ce38c1c399cf8e8f97fe8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c37…85bcbacked Yes | 23c | 296.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd7…8d72backed Yes | 56c | 215.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 56c | 208.1$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 65c | 159.15$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…9457backed Yes | 28c | 147.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 16c | 94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed No | 73c | 73.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 32c | 53.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…b449backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 39.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 34c | 37.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 64c | 29.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $640b and $650b on December 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $620b and $630b on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $630b and $640b on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $650b and $660b on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $620b on December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.