World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Christmas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85013f897fb21153193311d4b88e7c47b77a09627676f9801e9181dd17391eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed No | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…99c7backed Yes | 80c | 635.44$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…1829backed No | 53c | 218.34$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…faa3backed Yes | 75c | 175.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 54c | 159.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 137.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…5309backed Yes | 40c | 125.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 50c | 120.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 48c | 103.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 53c | 101.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 56c | 98.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 75c | 79.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 59c | 76.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 29c | 53.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 47c | 52.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Yes | 48c | 51.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…5bb7backed Yes | 51c | 51.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…9689backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0387…c6b8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5744…874bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…da14backed Yes | 56c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfe…3b11backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17fe…f2ebbacked Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked No | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 71c | 37.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…6f84backed No | 56c | 35.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 55c | 35.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…4348backed No | 61c | 34.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 60c | 33.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed Yes | 62c | 31.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…7b7fbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…55ebbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…474ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…2606backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…5cb3backed Yes | 57c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…add9backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Christmas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Budget" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Healthcare" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Home Office" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Labour" 8+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 4+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Russia" or Russian" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's QuestionsNo won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "United Kingdom" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.