Us Politics · resolved market
Will less than 5000 US flights be delayed on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a2ac65ef06c2c8bae5d240b47c48139b1a8fa91dc9d503695ac34cc512d554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,655 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 77c | 1,807$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.73 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 11c | 1,510$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 43c | 1,292$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.92 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 941.17$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked No | 3c | 899.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Yes | 79c | 790.79$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…836abacked No | 12c | 665.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 658.24$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.17 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked No | 73c | 647.16$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 10c | 499.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 17c | 463.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 335.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 10c | 332.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 20c | 239.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 58c | 237.82$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae2…805dbacked Yes | 7c | 208.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 80c | 189.36$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…8113backed Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 11c | 135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…c8d0backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 35c | 98.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…fd2fbacked Yes | 24c | 94.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed No | 28c | 86.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…907bbacked Yes | 19c | 63.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +430%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 59.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 30c | 51.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ff…8f15backed Yes | 31c | 49.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…de97backed No | 26c | 40.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89a…70d3backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed Yes | 77c | 34.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…6512backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…6e01backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will less than 5000 US flights be delayed on March 24?this page
- Will between 5000-5500 US flights be delayed on March 24?No won
- Will between 5500-6000 US flights be delayed on March 24?No won
- Will between 6000-6500 US flights be delayed on March 24?No won
- Will between 6500-7000 US flights be delayed on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.