Us Politics · resolved market
Will between 5000-5500 US flights be delayed on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf6597d6693b10b8514d5ff21b50db61775e10c803fd53b25e7e804ae6836ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,029 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6944…3902backed Yes | 45c | 240$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 55c | 240$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 15c | 175.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4514…5f38backed Yes | 28c | 159.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Yes | 15c | 99.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…1c60backed Yes | 52c | 65.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…243bbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 38.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…92cebacked No | 54c | 36.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…9fc8backed Yes | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…6e01backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will between 5000-5500 US flights be delayed on March 24?this page
- Will between 5500-6000 US flights be delayed on March 24?No won
- Will between 6000-6500 US flights be delayed on March 24?No won
- Will between 6500-7000 US flights be delayed on March 24?No won
- Will less than 5000 US flights be delayed on March 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.