MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x684854dee4c5443d743990363f3a680c340b49d0088cc16ab13d89cc34310fc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 2,688$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.94 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 1,042$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.52 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 842.58$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.3 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 43c | 815$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.55 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 45c | 735.42$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.48 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 654.95$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.87 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 64c | 463.73$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.78 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…4ce4backed Under | 48c | 295.83$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 62c | 284.86$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 44c | 264.58$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.16 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Over | 28c | 257.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 41c | 256.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.63 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 41c | 228.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 202.36$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…fa5ebacked Over | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +60%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 56c | 190$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 160.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 70c | 143.77$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 57c | 130.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 107.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Over | 30c | 103.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 68c | 92.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 40c | 88.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 74c | 50.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 67c | 45.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 60c | 44.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Under | 70c | 43.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 43c | 42.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 55c | 40.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 60c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 48c | 36.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Over | 58c | 34.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 42c | 30.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 44c | 24.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 45c | 23.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 70c | 22.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 72c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 67c | 22.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 69c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Under | 61c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.