MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacc43a37699c3a888f62d67a68a6e6b7e9f7fa9c0a2eaea084f6cc0836a08477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 6,489$4,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.2 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 26c | 4,133$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.58 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Seattle Mariners | 22c | 910$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Mariners | 22c | 888.36$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.44 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 716.99$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.27 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Seattle Mariners | 27c | 234$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 22c | 178$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 147.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 79.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 70.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Seattle Mariners | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 50.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.