Movies · resolved market
Will "A Cowboy Christmas Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc35377e2995e034e62c66b4854edeeda1b1fbc28d963cc52123416aeccfcf96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 71c | 6,694$4,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.56 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 19c | 2,380$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.95 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 37c | 1,447$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.17 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 46c | 900$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.25 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 35c | 399.53$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 31c | 306.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 70c | 246.71$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…40c6backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 40c | 84.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 40c | 62.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 80c | 50.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…1dc1backed Yes | 33c | 48.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…5bdabacked Yes | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 50c | 23.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 62c | 18.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…f102backed No | 69c | 15.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…b28ebacked Yes | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Cowboy Christmas Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)this page
- Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
- Will "Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
- Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.