TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,200
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,200 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes32c15,848$5,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,758.347122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93d1…a451backed No70c15,762$10,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,964.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+88.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Yes31c8,395$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,815.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+225.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked No66c5,693$3,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,757.76425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-68.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked No66c5,641$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,720.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes35c5,045$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,262.666023.3%14 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…6643backed Yes70c3,524$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.6820100%20 W · 0 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes27c3,416$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.1611039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No10c3,244$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.481127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd4…194bbacked No64c2,500$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No65c2,030$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.856827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes35c2,018$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3184250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No71c2,000$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes34c1,342$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.723330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No12c1,332$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.84616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes36c1,321$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.7922433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6789…cf8cbacked No62c1,295$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-54.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes35c1,095$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.6419931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No17c940$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.83010%3 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1a…ee7bbacked No71c842.41$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No67c837.94$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.191464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8685…be37backed Yes37c810.99$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No68c787.97$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.984254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb102…c73dbacked No68c721$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed No62c712.7$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.6714325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No69c700$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed Yes33c700$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4683119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e2…eddabacked No68c393.42$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked No65c388.74$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes31c380$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.13253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No71c313.05$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No67c304.42$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.272161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca9…2924backed No71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d1…84cbbacked No72c203.78$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.02977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes13c200$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1742138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+34.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc207…a678backed No67c154.63$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79d…4b58backed No69c146$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…c7fbbacked Yes29c145.27$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+70%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No65c142.23$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3417528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7741…b187backed No70c139.87$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde55…dc14backed Yes27c129.48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22f0…ae31backed No65c107.41$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes33c106.13$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.629913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x307f…ed8dbacked No67c105$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No69c104.21$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.411359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8823…175cbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb796…58a8backed No71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes39c99.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32da…b112backed Yes41c97.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x269e…3c98backed No61c97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dac…0ff2backed No69c83$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68d8…af58backed No64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No62c71.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.73850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No63c70.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.11464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No71c59.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.386139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a08…7ff5backed No65c52.32$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e6…6fcbbacked No62c51.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa769…843ebacked No71c51.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes35c44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.791080%8 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+83.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7113…665ebacked No63c43.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7366…91dabacked No62c42.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3223…c287backed Yes31c42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dae…ca60backed No63c41.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9277…112abacked No62c40.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a68…33bfbacked Yes39c38.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.33475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+94.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ca1…73f0backed Yes40c37.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…775fbacked Yes40c37.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…d82cbacked No67c37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28a0…73a0backed Yes40c36.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a4…0150backed No66c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No61c32.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.011040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a60…20c1backed Yes40c30.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c45…b324backed Yes40c30.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d2…efcebacked No62c30.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.530918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc4f…93d9backed No72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed No71c20.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1854…1a80backed No74c18.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ac…1494backed No71c15.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No68c14.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.