Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5393f99e079244e07bc244169cf54fea3a167d3d4aad55b0669fc4d0a08a74c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 32c | 15,848$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,758.34 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…a451backed No | 70c | 15,762$10,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,964.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Yes | 31c | 8,395$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,815.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +225.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 66c | 5,693$3,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,757.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 66c | 5,641$3,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,720.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 35c | 5,045$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,262.66 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 70c | 3,524$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.68 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 27c | 3,416$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.16 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 10c | 3,244$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 64c | 2,500$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 65c | 2,030$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.85 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 35c | 2,018$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 34c | 1,342$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.7 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 36c | 1,321$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.79 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…cf8cbacked No | 62c | 1,295$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 1,095$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.64 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 940$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…ee7bbacked No | 71c | 842.41$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 67c | 837.94$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.19 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8685…be37backed Yes | 37c | 810.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 68c | 787.97$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.98 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 68c | 721$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 62c | 712.7$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.67 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 69c | 700$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 33c | 700$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e2…eddabacked No | 68c | 393.42$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked No | 65c | 388.74$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 31c | 380$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 71c | 313.05$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 67c | 304.42$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca9…2924backed No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 72c | 203.78$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.02 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…a678backed No | 67c | 154.63$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4b58backed No | 69c | 146$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…c7fbbacked Yes | 29c | 145.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 142.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…b187backed No | 70c | 139.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 27c | 129.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed No | 65c | 107.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 106.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…ed8dbacked No | 67c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 104.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8823…175cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed Yes | 41c | 97.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269e…3c98backed No | 61c | 97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dac…0ff2backed No | 69c | 83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…af58backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 62c | 71.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 63c | 70.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 59.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed No | 65c | 52.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked No | 62c | 51.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked No | 71c | 51.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…665ebacked No | 63c | 43.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7366…91dabacked No | 62c | 42.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3223…c287backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dae…ca60backed No | 63c | 41.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9277…112abacked No | 62c | 40.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked Yes | 39c | 38.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca1…73f0backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…775fbacked Yes | 40c | 37.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked No | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…73a0backed Yes | 40c | 36.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…0150backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 61c | 32.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…20c1backed Yes | 40c | 30.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c45…b324backed Yes | 40c | 30.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d2…efcebacked No | 62c | 30.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…93d9backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…2ba5backed No | 71c | 20.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…1a80backed No | 74c | 18.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…1494backed No | 71c | 15.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 14.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?this page
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.1%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.