Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe52215f8df326726c52d903926e4939e7ee7e23a2f68b9c814c2fb084c824615
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 3,694$2,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.61 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 31c | 2,123$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…cf8cbacked Yes | 39c | 2,040$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 20c | 1,400$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 1,340$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.61 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 27c | 1,275$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.24 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 21c | 1,079$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.49 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 80c | 1,025$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 915.51$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.15 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 25c | 705.47$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.09 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 26c | 687.3$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 63c | 553.53$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.76 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 73c | 488.9$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…745abacked Yes | 42c | 475$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…e839backed Yes | 26c | 384.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 67c | 290$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 38c | 265.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 73c | 258$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…bd10backed Yes | 40c | 248.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd7…8d72backed Yes | 49c | 205.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…b49cbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 28c | 168$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 30c | 146.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 34c | 129$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e7…6cf8backed Yes | 38c | 125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269e…3c98backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 92.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 75c | 83.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…61eabacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 53.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 32c | 53.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 61c | 52.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 45c | 50.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…99babacked No | 73c | 32.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked No | 76c | 30.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…b079backed No | 73c | 27.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…5efdbacked No | 72c | 27.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 64c | 26.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 60c | 24.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea76…4397backed No | 73c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 70c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…1a80backed No | 75c | 18.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?this page
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.1%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.