Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x810e274c97ea8bb73d9425c7dcab082a30fee7914c95161fa4b47a22e87e530c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 80c | 2,046$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.85 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 38c | 1,768$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.51 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 26c | 1,700$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 64c | 1,423$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.65 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 1,079$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.63 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 10c | 1,064$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 990.91$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.54 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…cf8cbacked No | 74c | 783.55$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 773.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 37c | 633$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.91 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 39c | 210$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 202.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 12c | 194$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfd…9126backed No | 69c | 159$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4a…3242backed Yes | 13c | 150.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e7…6cf8backed Yes | 12c | 139.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 18c | 129$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 123.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 111.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8823…175cbacked Yes | 27c | 79.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 62c | 47.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…5136backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 66c | 39.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff43…0225backed No | 72c | 30.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…e045backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…d110backed No | 72c | 22.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%?this page
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.1%?No won
- Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.