Movies · resolved market
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd560012cbfb6d46a87c1d37a965eff6f967f84c4c260cc3d5b53ee5fdc68ac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,159 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 8c | 4,375$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.33 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 5c | 2,048$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 7c | 1,073$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed No | 5c | 1,060$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed No | 12c | 1,039$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…65fdbacked No | 2c | 908.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 9c | 721$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 639.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 76c | 599.73$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.02 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 2c | 594.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…03e0backed No | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 66c | 489.95$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc792…b421backed No | 3c | 451.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed Yes | 78c | 408.29$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 393.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 11c | 355.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 36c | 342.89$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 4c | 290.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 13c | 276$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 5c | 272.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 40c | 252.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.04 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 22c | 246.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 18c | 240.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 12c | 240.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 5c | 230.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 33c | 229.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 22c | 188.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 12c | 157.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 109.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 27c | 108.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…e6c0backed No | 38c | 102.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 35c | 102.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 36c | 98.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 44c | 89.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 17c | 89.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 44c | 79.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0ec4backed No | 23c | 66.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 75c | 62.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 49c | 47.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 46.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…98f8backed No | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 68c | 39.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…ed78backed No | 71c | 36.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 48c | 32.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…bf25backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…6babbacked No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "The Dinosaurs" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.