TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c497.86$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.914,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes42c427.2$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.7177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes45c367.06$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.741,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes49c350.19$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.336,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9715…6f82backed Yes38c337.3$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.545440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+110.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No67c266.35$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.531,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe70…5f45backed Yes49c253.09$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.32520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-58.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b9…66aabacked Yes64c212.91$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.761553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c206.07$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes71c182.91$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9110235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes14c178.76$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.13,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x025d…c171backed Yes30c172.08$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+237.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes37c152.22$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.421,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c143$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No57c133.79$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.931,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes29c118.18$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.961,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade7…3159backed Yes57c115.25$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.072231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b99…296bbacked No72c108.9$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.925825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes43c105.02$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.022552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No10c105$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+217%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes45c97.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes54c96.83$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3321333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes34c89.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.41,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes16c87.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6628329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes48c87.13$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6933058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c85.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.293,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes19c80$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.89047.8%43 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes63c79.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1660851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes28c78.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5632548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x893c…203fbacked No64c77.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No61c74.66$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.273,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c68.67$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfbea…76d0backed Yes23c66.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.083560%21 W · 14 L+6.0wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+67.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes76c65.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7711233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba3a…e041backed Yes55c65.52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.629927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e99…cb87backed Yes54c62.24$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.511520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes36c62.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.097536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c61.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.547,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae31…375fbacked No59c60.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes40c60.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8141845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3023035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No61c57.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.961,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d56…92e6backed Yes39c56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.443647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa654…58c9backed Yes47c54.8$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.85343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3c…9ed9backed Yes46c51.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes39c50.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.691533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x266c…84e9backed Yes30c50.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+68.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbc2…e280backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302070%14 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x327d…977bbacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefc8…4676backed Yes51c49.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.391942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No49c45.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.291,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd590…5421backed No61c44.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c44.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No34c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8515339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No65c43.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.141,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x720b…5e58backed No59c42.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x774c…d9d0backed Yes48c41.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.441942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x148f…2f09backed Yes38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.87140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No38c39.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes38c39.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7514544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe170…b80ebacked Yes41c39.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd39…b687backed Yes40c38.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+153%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No49c38.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1850…641bbacked Yes39c36.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+154.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes30c35.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7224414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…4e57backed No70c35.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.664551.1%23 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2646…82afbacked Yes69c34.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.684100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes58c34.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6315752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No63c33.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0789951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e3e…522abacked No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5310237.3%38 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa238…babcbacked Yes36c30.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.637644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No61c28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1531868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a1…8981backed No69c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.324862.5%30 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d7…70b8backed No62c27.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd561…d81dbacked Yes40c26.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.933050%15 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x108b…56b3backed Yes41c26.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.57875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1519449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1542438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa072…36d1backed No63c24.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa526…b3d0backed Yes50c24.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb9…58bebacked No64c22.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.611464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1927…9649backed Yes53c20.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.583040%12 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211540%46 W · 69 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f1b…eb68backed Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No64c19.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7755538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No79c12.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1310058%58 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.