Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3160fa3b39fed2fe197988d55f513dd410cb4c34853b97f32c72edc54e20e9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 497.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 42c | 427.2$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.71 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 367.06$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.74 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 350.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 38c | 337.3$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.54 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 266.35$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.53 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe70…5f45backed Yes | 49c | 253.09$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…66aabacked Yes | 64c | 212.91$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 206.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 71c | 182.91$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 178.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…c171backed Yes | 30c | 172.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 152.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 143$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 57c | 133.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 118.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 57c | 115.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 72c | 108.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes | 43c | 105.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +217%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 97.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 54c | 96.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 34c | 89.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 16c | 87.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 48c | 87.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 85.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 63c | 79.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 28c | 78.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…203fbacked No | 64c | 77.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 61c | 74.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 68.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 23c | 66.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 76c | 65.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 55c | 65.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…cb87backed Yes | 54c | 62.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 36c | 62.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 61.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…375fbacked No | 59c | 60.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 40c | 60.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 57.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 39c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 47c | 54.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3c…9ed9backed Yes | 46c | 51.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes | 39c | 50.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…84e9backed Yes | 30c | 50.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 51c | 49.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 49c | 45.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5421backed No | 61c | 44.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 44.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 43.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…5e58backed No | 59c | 42.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 48c | 41.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…b80ebacked Yes | 41c | 39.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd39…b687backed Yes | 40c | 38.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 49c | 38.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…641bbacked Yes | 39c | 36.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 30c | 35.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 70c | 35.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2646…82afbacked Yes | 69c | 34.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 58c | 34.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 63c | 33.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 36c | 30.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…70b8backed No | 62c | 27.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 40c | 26.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108b…56b3backed Yes | 41c | 26.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…36d1backed No | 63c | 24.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa526…b3d0backed Yes | 50c | 24.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked No | 64c | 22.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 53c | 20.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1b…eb68backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 64c | 19.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 79c | 12.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.