Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5421e656214e2764b7fb235cf98905b5320993fe2a860425491160de4bba21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,297 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 8c | 974.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 35c | 621.24$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.19 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 477.64$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.35 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 364.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 351.94$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 39c | 300.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 243.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 76c | 237.34$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 236$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 235.81$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 220.07$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 57c | 202.73$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed No | 69c | 173.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 73c | 172.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 41c | 169.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 62c | 155.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked No | 66c | 153.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…aed1backed Yes | 29c | 153.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 39c | 150.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 142.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 35c | 134.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 31c | 129.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 119.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 119.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 112.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 27c | 112.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 93.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 85.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 83.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 82.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 78.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 77.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 27c | 73.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 55c | 72.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 33c | 70.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 28c | 69.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 40c | 67.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 31c | 64.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 42c | 59.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…01abbacked Yes | 49c | 59.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 59.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 25c | 52.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 39c | 51.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 49.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 48.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 23c | 43.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 41.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 65c | 38.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 34c | 38.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked Yes | 29c | 34.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…203fbacked No | 76c | 32.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 36c | 30.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed Yes | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…6f1abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 18.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 78c | 13.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.