Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Competition" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce612ccf55b3a5f00109e2953144c8a492f913d409439c4be97b9eee5ac73df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…1a28backed Yes | 56c | 712.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 15c | 579$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 52c | 417.5$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 48c | 350$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…5437backed Yes | 58c | 343.87$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 46c | 252$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 52c | 186.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…0094backed Yes | 59c | 168.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 48c | 164$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb721…3214backed Yes | 52c | 159$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +139%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 17c | 148.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc4…3075backed No | 51c | 143$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 45c | 103.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f7…15febacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 52c | 73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…77aebacked Yes | 49c | 71.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 68.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes | 44c | 65.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe7…90dcbacked Yes | 59c | 62.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 45c | 62.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…eac0backed No | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 58c | 54.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…5ab3backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…3617backed Yes | 49c | 43.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 58c | 43.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…43aebacked No | 51c | 42.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c03…eac9backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 50c | 39.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…850fbacked Yes | 54c | 36.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 48c | 32.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…ed44backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 50c | 28.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…f19ebacked Yes | 51c | 27.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2e…2d64backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…e5c6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Competition" during earnings call?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Acquisition" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Bigger and longer" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "China" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Diner" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Grok" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Inflation" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Optimus" 3+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Optimus" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Recession" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Robotaxi" 10+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Robotaxi" 5+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Tariff" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Trump" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.