Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Diner" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb57366c8e497bb2772ae5cb7d04973bb608f8b875d4d3c7d21f8a6d4dee50046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe79a…3cd1backed Yes | 64c | 211$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb721…3214backed No | 35c | 165$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +139%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e57…b6afbacked Yes | 64c | 155.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…f94fbacked No | 39c | 151$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 122.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6140…08b0backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 35c | 96.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 60c | 76.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe607…aaaabacked No | 41c | 70.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 37c | 63.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 36c | 45.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…eac7backed No | 46c | 43.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 61c | 35.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…381ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…bdfabacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Diner" during earnings call?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Acquisition" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Bigger and longer" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "China" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Competition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Grok" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Inflation" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Optimus" 3+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Optimus" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Recession" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Robotaxi" 10+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Robotaxi" 5+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Tariff" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Trump" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.