TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Bigger and longer" during earnings call?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$601
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $601 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ded…9025backed No55c119.93$66 inWon+$54.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes46c105.28$49 inLost-$48.686150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes23c53.9$12 inLost-$12.440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked No55c46.41$26 inWon+$20.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…4d48backed No77c40.44$31 inWon+$9.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9bc…80f7backed Yes36c30$11 inLost-$10.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked No75c26.67$20 inWon+$6.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed No76c26.45$20 inWon+$6.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No69c21.59$15 inWon+$6.7324126.1%63 W · 178 L-26.8wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-51.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0816…377abacked No60c20$12 inWon+$81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.