TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Robotaxi" 10+ times during earnings call?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,282 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58a3…3490backed No1c1,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No54c531.33$285 inLost-$284.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77e5…ec41backed No4c311.33$13 inLost-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes51c290.02$148 inWon+$142.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes51c200$102 inWon+$98757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2194…56ecbacked No5c200$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e57…b6afbacked Yes69c116.34$80 inWon+$36.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes53c112.22$59 inWon+$52.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes69c109.84$76 inWon+$33.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-47.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No10c99.98$10 inLost-$10.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed No40c99.96$40 inLost-$39.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c91$39 inWon+$51.8786338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No22c80.09$17 inLost-$17.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d94…3617backed Yes45c60.15$27 inWon+$33.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No20c55.6$11 inLost-$11.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes76c52.49$40 inWon+$12.49520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-73.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e2b…53a0backed No64c49.9$32 inLost-$31.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No26c49$13 inLost-$12.67258%2 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-79.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e30…3adfbacked No49c39.99$20 inLost-$19.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes35c36.61$13 inWon+$23.74580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98e6…0b0abacked No55c36.36$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…d27fbacked Yes49c30$15 inWon+$15.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No65c20$13 inLost-$13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+159.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef0…8ea6backed No66c15.06$10 inLost-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.