Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Grok" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc39c2981ecb90a944e11ef20de0f942a61ad91a52f06cb405cf752b6825ce0dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed No | 15c | 843.77$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…da48backed No | 38c | 261.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 60c | 173.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed No | 41c | 137.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 12c | 130.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…abf8backed No | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…ed44backed No | 54c | 115$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 114.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 89.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…6ff9backed No | 47c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 56c | 73.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 76c | 66.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c03…eac9backed No | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…f19ebacked No | 30c | 63.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 61.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 36c | 54.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 71c | 49.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 41c | 49.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 64c | 47.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa897…b08bbacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…fdc4backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce0…beaebacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…0063backed Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4094…7d2ebacked Yes | 72c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Grok" during earnings call?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Acquisition" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Bigger and longer" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "China" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Competition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Diner" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Inflation" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Optimus" 3+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Optimus" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Recession" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Robotaxi" 10+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Robotaxi" 5+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Tariff" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Trump" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.