TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$373,101
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$375,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $373,101 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb28…a899backed No4c3,335$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21cd…802fbacked No4c3,002$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ef…6504backed No4c2,926$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755e…5116backed No3c2,894$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a4d…7a5fbacked No3c2,854$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c53…2217backed No5c2,633$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a36…aa7cbacked No3c2,440$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74be…7558backed No4c2,432$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x666c…69a6backed No4c2,339$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…087bbacked No4c2,308$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de5…d19cbacked No5c2,297$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa45…1a88backed No5c2,218$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x121a…274bbacked No4c2,145$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4139…625bbacked No4c2,024$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf541…20c1backed No3c2,016$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75a0…8a91backed No3c1,962$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ab…0b70backed No4c1,914$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7a…b556backed No4c1,859$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1335…23e6backed No3c1,843$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec44…ab84backed No3c1,784$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8a…12e0backed No4c1,782$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf13…728ebacked No3c1,779$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ca…c87ebacked No4c1,773$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e49…0631backed No4c1,710$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a72…f46bbacked No4c1,672$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d4…0f99backed No3c1,578$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196d…1e02backed No3c1,577$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc106…a94abacked No3c1,560$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca54…8f1fbacked No5c1,532$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf75c…3c6dbacked No3c1,522$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa939…2ba7backed No3c1,512$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x145d…6452backed No3c1,495$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d9…6fb5backed No5c1,475$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfad0…5b75backed No4c1,400$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a8…45b7backed No4c1,389$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a0…c022backed No3c1,368$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc96…b54fbacked No3c1,345$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153a…93a4backed No3c1,340$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb864…936dbacked No3c1,270$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa947…09ebbacked No5c1,253$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fd…c0fbbacked No3c1,251$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffc…2d98backed No3c1,215$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc02c…e90dbacked No4c1,214$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecea…7ac0backed No4c1,214$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e6…aad7backed No3c1,213$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd475…438fbacked No3c1,204$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2c…49e8backed No4c1,185$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e3…6d9dbacked No3c1,177$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cab…d64dbacked No4c1,171$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124e…e3cbbacked No5c1,163$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…77f8backed No5c1,116$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75c5…1ae6backed No3c1,102$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2dd…6961backed No4c1,089$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c72…dc5ebacked No3c1,072$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b6…970abacked No3c1,063$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfd0…7858backed No5c1,060$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6373…157fbacked No3c1,057$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b3…fb78backed No3c1,055$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c0…db46backed No3c1,055$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf183…e47ebacked No3c1,053$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aaf…d5d0backed No3c1,017$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e0d…f91dbacked No4c1,016$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x305d…feb6backed No3c1,008$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2173…c544backed No5c985$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0087…fdfdbacked No4c971$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1528…5d56backed No4c971$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e9…f064backed No4c964$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff5…b171backed No3c960$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf463…0450backed No3c947$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x695b…8168backed No3c929$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7aa…afe8backed No4c923$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2878…6f5dbacked No4c887$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b97…4292backed No4c878$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c86…3979backed No3c864$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca5…074fbacked No3c841$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4b…138bbacked No5c831$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cf…829abacked No5c829$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe32e…ed65backed No3c827$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0b…0772backed No3c789$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x719c…2f3dbacked No3c764$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…dde2backed No3c759$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e9…8d47backed No5c744$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39bd…bdb9backed No3c733$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581a…f59dbacked No3c730$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eba…4277backed No5c729$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bfc…3effbacked No5c721$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed2…0d2cbacked No3c713$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a2…4a53backed No3c711$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44a…d611backed No3c703$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb999…0684backed No3c677$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f7…d7f5backed No3c659$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb2…7aa7backed No4c650$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c80…6401backed No3c647$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ea…225ebacked No3c642$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc559…ce9cbacked No3c641$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb8…0474backed No4c636$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb3…93eabacked No3c633$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4491…3c65backed No4c632$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9002…9ca7backed No3c625$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.