Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6520ccce8aa8e87139f26787abdcd6e3de70b09bff08fdb7973dd6a92f433a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $344,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $343,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5e8…95f5backed Yes | 4c | 100,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,729$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…0600backed Yes | 6c | 8,207$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 16cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b51…472bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,075$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…ba13backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6207…5259backed Yes | 9c | 4,222$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…44b6backed Yes | 1c | 4,147$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 3c | 4,122$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,129$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…ea2dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,100$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes | 5c | 2,222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,141$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 1,629$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f60…383cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,629$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…b098backed Yes | 3c | 1,619$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…cf0ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,592$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,568$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,494$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 4c | 1,192$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 6c | 1,176$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,153$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 3c | 1,067$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,038$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…0b12backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b83abacked Yes | 3c | 990$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ff…6494backed Yes | 6c | 893.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…6396backed Yes | 2c | 877.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…72a6backed Yes | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750e…1facbacked Yes | 3c | 764.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…908fbacked Yes | 3c | 749.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 77c | 690$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.7 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 653.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked Yes | 3c | 595.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…a525backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 490.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed No | 79c | 410$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4778…398bbacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682b…2164backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…7104backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 320.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 78c | 319.21$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa7…ebb3backed Yes | 4c | 299.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0abb…ebeebacked Yes | 10c | 290$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…e203backed No | 77c | 280$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 79c | 251.9$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 21c | 240.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…84f5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3575…79d8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 79c | 189.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…9a42backed Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked No | 80c | 123.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…3b60backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 10c | 113.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 9c | 112.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e93…e71abacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…2d98backed Yes | 27c | 74.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…c4efbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 29c | 49.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…b441backed No | 76c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.