TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$814,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$847,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $814,277 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb63a…4064backed Yes12c18,024$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.3517231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes22c17,917$3,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,869.1928021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes35c12,544$4,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,416.6787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No76c10,071$7,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.4622550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes62c10,000$6,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1507123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes6c9,711$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.3923411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c8,931$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.051,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No71c8,813$6,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585.473447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No66c7,500$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes4c7,306$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.636622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes26c7,188$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.4558126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…3086backed Yes23c6,565$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed No68c6,033$4,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.283953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No38c6,007$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,713.14839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No70c5,637$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,676.845444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No33c5,092$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,421.483633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x986b…56bcbacked No52c4,415$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.022528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b78…482abacked Yes31c4,244$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9c…c48fbacked No69c4,110$2,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick67cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbceb…8110backed Yes35c4,037$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb95d…7316backed No65c3,957$2,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa80d…694abacked Yes31c2,854$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdcb…81dbbacked No69c2,842$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.09366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes10c2,793$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.166111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Yes55c2,728$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a55…eb88backed Yes79c2,600$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.99580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No63c2,594$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.467163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9778…42dfbacked No69c2,587$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f59…bee8backed Yes31c2,569$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb34…8b43backed No65c2,271$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff2…8ab4backed Yes35c2,246$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.03333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No69c2,242$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.7640643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes10c2,185$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.663998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f0…fc44backed No69c2,043$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a6…f04ebacked Yes31c2,007$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fc…5c52backed Yes31c1,910$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0da…a034backed No69c1,902$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ede…558ebacked No65c1,892$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc69…064ebacked Yes35c1,871$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c1,806$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.756785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes9c1,796$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.191612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c1,741$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.9864812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0580…96fabacked Yes31c1,735$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe51a…b4d4backed No69c1,726$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e81…8b42backed Yes31c1,710$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes36c1,690$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.334658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed No27c1,674$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.482832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ad…c0bdbacked Yes31c1,657$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…cd68backed No69c1,650$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed No31c1,625$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.362540%10 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed No34c1,614$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.49812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55dd…8f7cbacked No65c1,557$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+115.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bd5…12b3backed Yes35c1,533$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.6630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27ad…3f0ebacked No69c1,447$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5fa…44b6backed Yes6c1,434$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb325…022fbacked Yes31c1,424$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a65…a930backed No74c1,355$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.931442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda63…789ebacked Yes4c1,352$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+756.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x712a…8ef9backed No76c1,320$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.863100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,318$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.582125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No77c1,304$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.171118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-72.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…7721backed No69c1,280$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b63…54abbacked Yes31c1,271$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes25c1,201$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.236026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Yes21c1,200$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257150%0 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x133b…474bbacked Yes25c1,179$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd79a…440abacked Yes17c1,176$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+396%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c1,175$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.132999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcce8…514abacked No24c1,138$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+107.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb232…8709backed Yes9c1,087$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7758…7125backed No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.1933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes8c1,000$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes9c996.86$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.97933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd5…9b06backed No65c951.25$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fa…a4e9backed Yes35c940.44$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed No66c920.72$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.66728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a74…49e7backed Yes1c899.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick19cpaid+297.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes6c868.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1b…e4a7backed Yes30c831.33$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.51020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56eb…2d13backed Yes28c805.08$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62f…68e7backed Yes7c768.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb210…7208backed Yes47c751.51$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x549e…cebebacked No69c710.51$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes15c703.53$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.526615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc221…92a8backed Yes14c699.8$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0c…6ccebacked Yes31c651.91$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes17c638.32$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.432213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+141.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes7c610.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.916221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes7c595.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.46128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes21c573.29$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.212744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5df1…2da7backed Yes35c557.66$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+242.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf75b…ed74backed Yes11c553.64$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+147.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x044d…71fabacked Yes46c548.93$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick24cpaid+294%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes29c540.29$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.235637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes21c534.35$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6311726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x713d…5da1backed Yes6c507.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ba…655ebacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Yes9c462$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.32812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-75.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x252e…4d07backed Yes5c452.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes8c436.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.716320.6%13 W · 50 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.