Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c296f80a219d51c608cac188442e3525277073310db0ed9ec53642c06245b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $319,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5e8…95f5backed Yes | 2c | 28,335$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b51…472bbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 1c | 9,997$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…c5ccbacked Yes | 1c | 6,776$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e48…8852backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…6732backed Yes | 3c | 4,538$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,534$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f60…383cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,945$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 3c | 3,337$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…8378backed Yes | 12c | 3,288$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.55 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,489$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…bc7dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,428$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 2,086$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,083$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 4c | 2,030$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,749$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,718$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…a930backed Yes | 2c | 1,650$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…eae6backed Yes | 1c | 1,554$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,543$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 7c | 1,280$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,188$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…853dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,063$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a72…3b30backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…92a8backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6991…2370backed Yes | 1c | 681.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 650.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…e152backed Yes | 2c | 630.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 18c | 567.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa7…ebb3backed Yes | 3c | 545.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…5f24backed Yes | 5c | 514.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…72a6backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750e…1facbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 4c | 348.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 9c | 164.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50af…8b52backed Yes | 9c | 144.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…cb7cbacked Yes | 18c | 94.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 19-25?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.