Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba1d1ce83a72f150fddf9a1b1599acc3eeeba0d2f09645f5eb22081c451589cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 0c | 30,123$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 10c | 15,616$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.81 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 3c | 15,172$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.75 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 10c | 13,885$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.5 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,246$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 8c | 4,030$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.2 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 1c | 4,012$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 3c | 1,676$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,633$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 3c | 1,118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…d571backed Yes | 2c | 974.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 5c | 972.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 903.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092d…a7cbbacked Yes | 2c | 903.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 767.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 1c | 763.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…92b2backed Yes | 3c | 722.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 5c | 700$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 2c | 658.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 631.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…9ba5backed Yes | 7c | 500.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…7fc7backed Yes | 9c | 435.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 8c | 262$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…3bcbbacked Yes | 10c | 242.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 8c | 184.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 11c | 178.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…d5c2backed Yes | 10c | 115.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…389dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…f0abbacked Yes | 12c | 91.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.