Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x522f489fe7e7e3328c4305828f1551a117a88628737d965aceda85b82a9bc611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9847…6e5fbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 60c | 16,642$10,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,596.04 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…7631backed No | 61c | 12,542$7,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,696.19 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 49c | 9,673$4,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,979.67 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 33c | 8,983$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.93 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 47c | 8,021$3,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,272.68 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 33c | 6,808$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,566.91 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked No | 29c | 5,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…521cbacked No | 46c | 3,236$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…47e1backed Yes | 54c | 2,570$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 23c | 2,090$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.96 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…a930backed No | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 30c | 1,596$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.32 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 65c | 1,153$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.46 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…e4a7backed Yes | 68c | 818.3$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 44c | 684.62$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.14 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…0cf9backed Yes | 70c | 657.16$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.72 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 33c | 544.69$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.48 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…cc52backed Yes | 53c | 495.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.24 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3360…955bbacked No | 58c | 350$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf0…4964backed Yes | 45c | 300$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +374.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed69…de01backed No | 35c | 285.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,147.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 37c | 276.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…3b90backed No | 37c | 249.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 28c | 246.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.43 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…49bcbacked Yes | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 41c | 190$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 28c | 175$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 45c | 138.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…203ebacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 65c | 121.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 37c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…5040backed Yes | 48c | 118.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Yes | 32c | 117.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 26c | 105.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…0c23backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…cf28backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d1…461cbacked No | 71c | 99.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 53cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…2d98backed Yes | 25c | 80.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…7d79backed No | 33c | 66.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…6db6backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked No | 53c | 65.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…972dbacked No | 77c | 64.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +164%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 64c | 62.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 73cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 55cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…f0abbacked Yes | 28c | 47.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…773bbacked No | 34c | 38.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…23d3backed No | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…cb65backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…76dcbacked No | 61c | 34.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…6b08backed Yes | 55c | 33.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9921…1959backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 65c | 31.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ee…f687backed Yes | 65c | 29.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc500…bc37backed No | 57c | 25.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb5…5375backed Yes | 56c | 23.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…cc50backed No | 62c | 16.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…4680backed No | 62c | 16.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…b441backed No | 80c | 15.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc9…0165backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 19-25?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.