TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$291,197
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,197 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c62,935$597 inLost-$596.9823411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes3c17,530$601 inLost-$601.353312.1%4 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c13,904$14 inLost-$13.9940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c10,440$10 inLost-$10.44800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c10,005$10 inLost-$10710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c8,343$66 inLost-$66.091,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c0c…c312backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost-$15567.1%4 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed Yes1c5,013$37 inLost-$36.523953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5679…f580backed Yes2c3,209$52 inLost-$51.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes2c2,137$38 inLost-$38.455016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed Yes1c2,004$17 inLost-$171533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,796$24 inLost-$23.886785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes2c1,473$36 inLost-$36.358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c1,287$25 inLost-$254754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe96e…164ebacked Yes1c1,206$12 inLost-$1270%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c1,114$15 inLost-$14.833998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7580…853dbacked Yes2c1,001$21 inLost-$21616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick4cpaid+47.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,000$13 inLost-$13.22125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes2c822.69$13 inLost-$13.036221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c724.12$14 inLost-$13.762999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes2c699.22$14 inLost-$14.4587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e21…1d62backed Yes3c668.75$18 inLost-$18.120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5709…f0abbacked Yes3c460.4$13 inLost-$12.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce34…ce40backed Yes4c328.44$15 inLost-$14.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92cb…ecb2backed Yes5c325.1$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5184…16ffbacked Yes5c233.91$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.