Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb49a438114332abbf90de7ff215d6a58a02612da6dea648ec32a50c40bae3997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $329,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 3c | 15,843$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.41 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 9,845$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.47 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 15c | 8,574$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.17 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 8c | 6,595$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.21 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 7c | 5,523$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.84 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 9c | 5,207$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.48 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…390abacked Yes | 8c | 3,800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,749$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,102$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.56 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 14c | 3,100$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.57 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 2,259$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.03 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 7c | 2,107$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 4c | 1,862$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,560$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 1,382$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,366$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 1,342$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.87 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 4c | 1,254$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 981.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x572b…77e1backed Yes | 18c | 960$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…7208backed Yes | 30c | 956.45$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 2c | 931.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 3c | 822.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Yes | 27c | 801.18$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +242.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 791.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8423…b9c1backed Yes | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe186…c040backed Yes | 4c | 634.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 2c | 551.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 7c | 450$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 3c | 431.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Yes | 14c | 427.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…b62dbacked Yes | 3c | 408.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ec…819dbacked Yes | 6c | 351.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e93…e71abacked Yes | 15c | 350$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…48cfbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 4c | 329.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d1…461cbacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 53cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…9116backed Yes | 10c | 287.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed No | 73c | 272.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa463…1033backed Yes | 9c | 267.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked Yes | 5c | 264.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe96e…164ebacked Yes | 9c | 216.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…d74bbacked Yes | 11c | 212.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 9c | 204.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 69c | 174.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 12c | 128.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3360…955bbacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…3bcbbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…760dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…d4fabacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Yes | 19c | 85.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bf…3c8abacked Yes | 28c | 74.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…1ba3backed Yes | 28c | 71.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…966cbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…aa43backed Yes | 21c | 56.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +214%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…6cb8backed Yes | 31c | 49.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked No | 76c | 47.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 19-25?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.