TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$563,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$526,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $563,633 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes12c21,410$2,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,637.5428021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa743…251fbacked Yes10c19,292$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e4e…0d6ebacked Yes2c17,219$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c10,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f64…792bbacked Yes0c9,100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fd…296ebacked Yes0c7,720$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f6…c914backed Yes50c6,819$3,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb31…445dbacked No50c6,609$3,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,304.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcac…af56backed Yes1c6,580$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x909b…a95fbacked Yes1c6,230$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7702…13d1backed No57c6,117$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,630.311464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes5c5,421$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.04432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2507123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3504858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No55c4,873$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,173.477163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d6…01cbbacked Yes1c4,740$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes2c4,303$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.159427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No17c4,130$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,408.248625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d7…3b16backed Yes15c3,622$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,483$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.651,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes2c3,402$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.62904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes3c3,293$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes15c3,131$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.6617231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes16c3,055$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.76111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6408…c7aebacked Yes5c3,000$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.65024%12 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e0e…e376backed No50c2,951$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes4c2,911$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.19933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62c9…8407backed Yes50c2,885$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+152.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes31c2,720$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.6922550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No65c2,563$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.340643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e55…6046backed No50c2,458$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb232…8709backed Yes1c2,426$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d30…ced4backed Yes50c2,411$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c2,268$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.432125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes6c2,202$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1391612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1904…f03abacked Yes3c2,101$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes6c2,099$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.113998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked No22c2,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5601741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes9c2,000$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18614019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa62f…68e7backed Yes3c1,950$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ab0…7846backed No50c1,925$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes19c1,923$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.4187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a5c…a079backed Yes50c1,872$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa793…1776backed Yes7c1,870$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.91910.5%2 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-83.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f7e…9159backed Yes3c1,828$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6f…5e44backed Yes2c1,824$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick4cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c1,697$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.92999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes1c1,652$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.739022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c1,596$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.146785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes3c1,589$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.896221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x138b…7e3dbacked Yes49c1,541$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Yes6c1,422$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.91812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-75.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes8c1,201$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.076026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes9c1,137$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.353212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb8…1601backed Yes1c1,134$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ba…655ebacked Yes2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d74…04f5backed Yes16c1,047$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.491915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5503647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5831…3f6cbacked Yes6c1,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be2…6ad6backed Yes3c900$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd9…e02ebacked Yes11c900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+127.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fa6…401cbacked Yes4c880.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbf…bf76backed Yes3c868.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes3c861.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8312020%24 W · 96 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c809.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.68985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c772.17$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.873324.2%8 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-50.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes2c700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-61.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71e2…31c4backed No21c667.47$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.44139%16 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf937…87c7backed Yes16c627.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6111…0966backed No80c625.56$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf143…c090backed Yes18c612.06$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.17911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid+204.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e2c…aba2backed Yes25c605.84$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes2c600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick22cpaid+108.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x551c…0a7dbacked Yes11c584.66$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdf…adc5backed Yes3c572.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes8c550$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.51437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No80c535$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10713770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a0e…27a4backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9371…3aecbacked Yes51c494.97$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.16633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x882e…54cebacked Yes21c478.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.29616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a53…ade7backed Yes21c474.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c469.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.372417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes11c458.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.46598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No75c457.26$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.262857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked No67c446.7$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.344955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes24c441$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.878521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes22c421$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.892744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fe44backed Yes24c418.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed No24c412.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.534848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e93…e71abacked Yes23c407.5$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.13729.7%11 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc617…11cabacked Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…55dcbacked Yes5c384.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c24…e918backed Yes18c333.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes6c323$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.062213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c19…cc52backed No53c313.15$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.584355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…afb4backed Yes4c301.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick16cpaid+201.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.